In Leon County, our growth industry is bureaucracy
Anytime even the smallest new development is announced in Tallahassee, someone inevitably says “we are turning into Orlando.”
Not only is that not happening, Tallahassee and Leon are getting much farther away from being a growing, vibrant community where our citizens see their incomes rise and our children stick around to build meaningful and rewarding careers. We can, however, find growth in at least one major category: We grow bureaucracy the way Iowa grows corn.
The easiest way to measure the growth of a community is by looking at population. And if you believe the science and research – that communities with stagnant populations are most likely to suffer crime and poverty – the population picture is ugly.
Since 2015, Leon County has added just 12,544 residents – a 4.4 percent increase over that period.
In the short term, the picture is even worse. Leon County actually LOST population between 2022 and 2023 and early estimates show another loss in 2024.
It’s a stark contrast to the period from roughly 1970 to 2010 – a 40-year period when Leon nearly tripled in size.
Compared to its fellow Florida counties, Leon’s population growth looks even more anemic. From 2020-2025 (est.) Leon ranks No. 63 out of 67 for population growth, just behind Union County, home to Raiford and Lake Butler.
Public sector anything but low growth
You might think that since the county isn’t growing, that the two local governments that serve Leon residents have also shown smallish growth, but that hasn’t been the case.
The combined operating budgets of the City of Tallahassee and Leon County now total $1.285 billion, a $377 million or 42 percent increase since 2015. While local government doesn’t necessarily need to grow at the rate of inflation, those two local governments’ growth has far exceeded the rate of inflation during that time.
Some of the categories on which local government spends money are eye-popping.
The City of Tallahassee spends more than $1.47 million on its communications department; $839,000 on “strategic innovation” and $463,000 for its ethics office (even after it was recently rocked by its own ethics scandal).
Leon County (and most other Florida and U.S, counties) have been able to grow at this high rate, without leaning into millage rate increases, because property values have increased so sharply during the inflationary period of the last few years. Property tax revenue in Leon County has increased almost 50 percent from 2020 to 2025 ($147 million to $218 million).
In Tallahassee, property tax revenue has increased more than 50 percent since 2020.
But cumulative inflation for that period is just 25 percent.
Back to the private sector
More evidence of Tallahassee’s lack of growth is the lack of available housing inventory. This chart compares Leon County to the three counties closest in population (greater and less than). As you can see, Leon has fewer listings than any counties with similar size populations. Eventually this will result in upward pressure on prices as we know from our high school Econ 101 price curve.
And that’s exactly what is happening in Leon County.
Since the start of 2020, the median price of a home in Leon County has risen from $225,000 to $315,000 – a 40 percent increase in just 5 years. Those percentages in similar counties: Alachua up 19 percent; Hernando up 41 percent; Escambia up 26 percent; St. John’s up 38 percent.
Orlando? Really?
It shouldn’t be surprising that Leon County’s growth is anemic – anti-growth forces have opposed all sorts of new development, both residential and commercial, with varying degrees of success.
From parking garages to gas stations to urban infill and many more, Tallahassee-Leon has consistently advocated against ALL growth, even as it claims to be for “smart growth.”
Invariably, snide comments in social media posts on new development claim that Leon is on the verge of “turning into Orlando.” Here are Google Earth shots comparing the two:
Of course, it’s a ridiculous comparison. Orange County (Orlando) population has grown more in the last two years than Leon County has in the last 35.
While the issue is being demagogued, Tallahassee-Leon is experiencing exactly what you would expect from a low-growth area – high poverty, particularly concentrated in certain areas, and decades of high crime. You can draw a direct line between our failure to grow and the desperation in our poorest neighborhoods.
Leon County’s rolling rate of people below 150 percent of poverty (2019-2023) is 25.6 percent – well above the state average of 21.3 percent. And the 32304 zip code has become infamous for being one of the poorest in the state.
And while Leon County’s violent crime rate is no longer worst in the state, it is still above the state average.
An Urban Land Institute 2002 working paper on the relationship between growth and economic strength presciently identified this type of nexus.
The study found the following benefits of growth:
- Maintains the current standard of living, at a minimum;
- Accommodates the steadily growing population of the United States that results from annual birthrates and immigration levels that continue to outpace the number of deaths and the rate of out-migration;
- Provides additional choices of where to live and work;
- Generates new jobs, new income, new tax revenue, and higher property values;
- Stimulates greater opportunities for the revitalization of urban areas.
Further, ULI compared high-growth metro areas to low-growth and found that the higher growth areas had more jobs, better transportation, better education and better recreation, even as the market tried to keep pace with an influx of new residents.
Back to poverty, should we really hate Orlando so much when the average Orlando household makes more than $1,000 per month than the average Tallahassee household? That extra income in our county would transform the lives of Tallahassee’s struggling families.