Employment, wages, population, bankruptcy all headed in wrong direction; instead of lining up paid apologists, maybe local officials should take action?
By Skip Foster, Red Tape Florida
If one economic indicator were moving in the wrong direction, it could be dismissed as a bad quarter or a statistical anomaly. Two or three might still be explained away. But when a series of major measures tells the same story, it’s much harder to ignore.
That’s exactly what emerges from the Office of Economic Vitality’s own public dashboard and the federal and state data behind it.
This analysis focuses specifically on Leon County, where OEV is headquartered and where local taxpayers fund its operations. While the agency has increasingly emphasized Tallahassee metropolitan-area statistics — which include Gadsden, Jefferson and Wakulla counties — its own county-level data raise serious questions about the trajectory of Leon’s economy.
Fewer residents are working. OEV’s interactive dashboard shows the number of Leon County residents holding jobs has fallen from 163,592 in October 2024 to 154,743 in the most recent reporting month — a decline of 8,849 workers, or 5.4 percent, in roughly a year and a half. At the same time, unemployment has moved sharply in the wrong direction. Federal Reserve data based on Bureau of Labor Statistics figures shows Leon County’s unemployment rate climbing from the mid-3 percent range a year ago to 5.0 percent in the most recent month available. Those two trends rarely point to an economy gaining momentum.
Wages remain a concern. Leon County became the only one of Florida’s largest counties to see average weekly wages decline during 2024. Although wages rebounded in 2025, the recovery still leaves the county with only a modest 3.4 percent gain over the full two-year period. For a community that increasingly competes for higher-paying private-sector jobs, wage stagnation is hardly encouraging.
Population growth has slowed to a crawl. Census estimates show Leon County added just 402 residents between 2023 and 2024 — a growth rate of only 0.13 percent — and continues to trail neighboring Wakulla and Jefferson counties. While earlier Census revisions showed an outright population decline, the broader trend remains unmistakable: Leon is growing far more slowly than much of the rest of Florida.
Housing is recovering — but still below recent norms. Single-family construction permits have rebounded significantly from last year’s lows, which is welcome news. Even so, permitting through May remains about 14 percent behind last year’s pace and well below the levels reached only a few years ago. It’s an improvement, but not yet a return to the county’s stronger growth years.
The remaining indicators point in the same direction. Bankruptcy filings have climbed 65 percent since 2021. Taxable sales declined 13 percent year over year in the most recent reporting period. New business applications have fallen by more than one-quarter since 2021. None of those trends suggest a local economy firing on all cylinders. All of them come from OEV’s dashboard.
Any one of these statistics, standing alone, could be dismissed as noise. Economic data gets revised. Housing cycles fluctuate. Consumer spending rises and falls. But taken together, they paint a remarkably consistent picture.
Fewer people are working. Unemployment is higher. Wage growth has lagged. Population growth is virtually nonexistent. Residential construction remains below recent norms. Bankruptcies are rising. Consumers are spending less. Entrepreneurs are starting fewer businesses.
OEV’s own dashboard is designed to measure economic performance. On many of its most important indicators, that dashboard is flashing warning signs.
This should be the first and main subject of every local commission meeting – what are we doing about our lagging, stagnant economy?